EC bought at $1,829 psf$1.70M
OCR condo bought at $2,242 psf$2.09M
Part 1 of 3 · Questions 1 to 3
The price gap today
How much cheaper a new EC really is, and whether that holds up.
Question 1
How much cheaper is a new EC right now?
The discount you get on day one is your cushion. It also appears to explain part of past EC profits.
Median new-sale prices by home size
New ECs against new 99-year OCR condos, Oct 2025 to Sep 2026
Per sq ft
Total price
New EC (developer sale)New 99-year OCR private condo (developer sale)
Source: URA caveat and developer sales data, retrieved 2 Oct 2026. Single-unit sales up to 1,600 sq ft. 3-bed size = 801 to 1,100 sq ft (EC 972 sales, OCR 1,143). 4-bed size = 1,101 to 1,600 sq ft (EC 344, OCR 908). All sizes: EC 1,316 sales across 9 projects, OCR 3,359 across 26.
At 3-bedroom size, a new EC cost a median $1.76M against $2.18M for a new OCR condo, about $425,000 less. At 4-bedroom size the saving is about $612,000. Across all sizes the gap narrows to about 11%, because EC buyers tend to use the discount to buy bigger homes.
Coastal Cabana and Rivelle Tampines make up 90% of new EC sales, so EC figures mostly reflect Pasir Ris and Tampines.
Question 2
Does the gap hold when you compare
the same town?
If ECs only look cheap because they are further out, the discount would not mean much. So we checked pairs of new launches in the same estate.
Same-town pairs, median price per sq ft
New sales, Oct 2025 to Sep 2026
New ECNew private condo nearby
Source: URA data, retrieved 2 Oct 2026. Otto Place 97 sales, Tengah Garden Residences 863 (both District 24). Rivelle Tampines 556, Parktown Residence 70 (both District 18). Parktown Residence's figure rests on a smaller sample.
Does one project change the answer?
The EC discount to new 99-year OCR condos, recalculated without the most influential projects
| Version of the comparison | New EC | New OCR condo | EC discount |
|---|---|---|---|
| All projects | $1,837 | $2,258 | 18.6% |
| Without Coastal Cabana | $1,922 | $2,258 | 14.9% |
| Without Rivelle Tampines | $1,792 | $2,258 | 20.6% |
| Without Vela Bay (a pricier Bayshore launch) | $1,837 | $2,211 | 16.9% |
| Without Tengah Garden Residences | $1,837 | $2,390 | 23.1% |
Median psf, new sales, Oct 2025 to Sep 2026. Source: URA data, retrieved 2 Oct 2026.
In both Tengah and Tampines the new EC sold about 17% below the private launch next door. However we cut the data, the discount lands between 15% and 23%. So the EC price advantage is real, and it is not only a location effect.
Question 3
Has the EC discount shrunk?
A buyer who enters at a deep discount has more room to catch up with private prices later. A shallow discount leaves less.
Median price per sq ft by year, new sales
New ECs against new 99-year OCR condos, with the EC discount for each full year
New ECNew 99-year OCR condoPart-year (2021 = Sep to Dec only; 2026 = Jan to Sep)
Source: URA data, retrieved 2 Oct 2026. Sales per year (EC / OCR): 2021 247 / 932, 2022 1,392 / 2,002, 2023 703 / 1,791, 2024 1,136 / 2,997, 2025 1,528 / 4,187, 2026 1,242 / 2,804. Each year's figure depends on which projects launched that year.
In 2022 and 2023, new ECs sold for about a third less than new OCR condos. Since then, EC prices have risen 38% against 17% for private, so the discount is now about 20%. Today's EC prices are also more than double 2015 levels (about $797 psf).
Pre-2022 figures come from industry reports, not URA data. Treat them as context.
Part 2 of 3 · Questions 4 to 6
What drove past EC profits
Why earlier buyers did so well, and how much of that is left.
Question 4
Why did past EC buyers make so much?
Most EC success stories come from projects launched in 2015 to 2018.
Selected ECs: price at launch against resale price today
Well-known projects only
| EC | Launched | Launch psf | Resale psf today | Change | Resales |
|---|
Launch psf from media reports; resale medians from URA, Oct 2025 to Sep 2026. Before costs, not annualised; holds of about 8 to 14 years.
60.1% vs 38.6%
EC vs private resale growth, 2020 to 2025
97%
EC resales profitable in 2025
63%
Of ECs profitable at year five
169% vs 246%
EC vs leasehold condo growth since 1998
What drove the gains
Buyers entered at $750 to $970 psf during the 2015 to 2017 lull, then their estates closed much of the gap to private condos.
The counterpoints
These are well-known winners. Some early ECs lost up to $173,000 when sold right at MOP, though all studied were profitable by year ten.
Neither the low entry price nor the wide gap is as strong today, so past gains are not a guide for 2026 buyers.
Question 5
Where do ECs settle once they have matured?
This tells us where the catch-up usually stops. We compared older ECs with private condos of the same lease age, so neither side has a "newer building" advantage.
How far below same-age private condos older ECs resell
Resales of 800 to 1,400 sq ft homes; ECs and 99-year OCR condos whose leases began 2012 to 2015
Source: URA data, retrieved 2 Oct 2026. Resales per year (EC / private): 2022 1,104 / 632, 2023 1,147 / 450, 2024 1,151 / 513, 2025 943 / 492, 2026 to Sep 544 / 371.
Over the last four years, ECs from this generation have resold consistently about 9 to 10% below private condos of the same age. Younger ECs that have just passed their MOP, mainly Rivercove Residences in Sengkang, are about 14% below.
This comparison matches lease age, not location. Looking district by district, the EC gap ranges from about 4% above private to 25% below, so the estate you buy in matters as much as the average.
Question 6
How much catch-up is left for today's buyer?
Put the last two answers together. You start at the launch discount and, if history is a guide, you end up somewhere around 9 to 14% below private. The distance between the two is the extra gain an EC can offer.
From discount at launch to typical discount at resale
Percentage below comparable private condos
Discount at launchTypical discount once mature (9 to 14%)
Launch discounts from URA new-sale medians: 2022 to 2023 about 33%; Oct 2025 to Sep 2026 about 19% (3-bed size 18.4%). Resale band from Question 5. The two are measured on slightly different bases, so read the gap as a rough size, not an exact figure.
A buyer in 2022 or 2023 had roughly 19 to 24 percentage points of potential catch-up. A buyer today has about 5 to 10 points, around a third as much. The EC advantage is still there. It is just smaller, so the price you pay at launch matters more than it used to.
Part 3 of 3 · Questions 7 to 12
What it means for you
The possible numbers, the new rules, and which route fits your situation.
Question 7
What could this mean in dollars?
A 930 sq ft, 3-bedroom-sized home bought new today and held about 8 to 9 years.
Scenario, not a forecast
Private marketFalls 10%
OCR condo
−$209k (−10.0%)
EC, 10% below private
−$12k (−0.7%)
EC, 14% below private
−$87k (−5.1%)
Private marketFlat
OCR condo
$0 (0.0%)
EC, 10% below private
+$176k (+10.3%)
EC, 14% below private
+$92k (+5.4%)
Private marketRises 20%
OCR condo
+$417k (+20.0%)
EC, 10% below private
+$551k (+32.4%)
EC, 14% below private
+$451k (+26.5%)
Private marketRises 40%
OCR condo
+$834k (+40.0%)
EC, 10% below private
+$926k (+54.5%)
EC, 14% below private
+$809k (+47.6%)
"Private market" is how much the OCR home's value moves. EC rows show where the EC could end up relative to private (from Question 5). Excludes stamp duties, interest, fees and the deferred payment premium.
What the numbers show
The EC finishes ahead in most cases and loses less if prices fall. Only in a strong rise, with the EC ending 14% below private, does the OCR condo gain slightly more in dollars.
What it depends on
The EC still reselling 9 to 14% below private. The edge shrinks fast if the launch is priced close to private levels.
Question 8
What changed in the EC rules in 2026?
The rules decide how long your money is locked in and who you can sell to.
Applies to you today
Old rules
ECs on sale now and the next five launches
- Minimum Occupation Period (MOP)
- 5 years
- Resale to Singapore citizens and PRs only
- Years 6 to 10
- Fully private (foreigners can buy)
- After year 10
- Deferred Payment Scheme
- Available
- Units reserved for first-timers
- 70% for 1 month
- Household income ceiling
- $16,000
Future sites
New rules
ECs on sites whose tender closes on or after 8 May 2026
- Minimum Occupation Period (MOP)
- 10 years
- Resale to Singapore citizens and PRs only
- Years 11 to 15*
- Fully private (foreigners can buy)
- After year 15
- Deferred Payment Scheme
- Removed
- Units reserved for first-timers
- 90% for 2 years
- Household income ceiling
- $18,000**
*Single report, to be confirmed. **For sites whose tender closes from 24 Aug 2026. As reported by Mothership, PropNex, Stacked Homes and HerWorld; loan limits from MAS.
Today's buyers stay on the old rules. New-rule ECs lock owners in for a decade, about 13 years from purchase to an open-market sale.
Planning to stay put
The new rules matter less.
Upgrading within 8 to 10 years
The last old-rule launches are your final chance to do it with an EC.
Question 9
Which ECs can you still buy on the old rules?
The launches today's buyers will choose from over the next year.
5
Old-rule sites left
~2,000
Units in total
$1,700 to $2,000
Expected launch psf (estimate)
$825
Canberra Drive top bid psf ppr (provisional)
The last five old-rule EC sites
Bukit PanjangSolano GrandSenja Close
Land psf ppr*$771
Units302
Expected launchDec 2026 to Jan 2027
WoodlandsWynwood GrandWoodlands Drive 17, plot 1
Land psf ppr*$782
Units430
Expected launchQ4 2026 preview
SembawangSembawang Road ECSembawang Road
Land psf ppr*$692
Units265
Expected launchQ4 2026 to Q1 2027
WoodlandsWoodlands Drive 17, plot 2Sim Lian
Land psf ppr*$794
Units560
Expected launchAround Q2 2027
YishunMiltonia CloseHoi Hup
Land psf ppr*$732
Units430
Expected launchTo be announced
*Land price per sq ft of allowed floor area, from tender results. Timings and unit counts are approximate.
If these launch near $2,000 psf while nearby private launches sit at $2,100 to $2,300 psf, the EC discount narrows further, so compare each launch with its nearest private option.
Question 10
What will you compete with when you sell?
Your resale price depends partly on how many similar ECs reach the market at the same time as yours.
EC units reaching MOP each year
When owners can first sell on the open market, 2020 to 2035
Already reached MOPCompleted projects, MOP aheadStill being built (estimate)
MOP year = completion (TOP) year plus 5, from compiled TOP records; may not be exhaustive. Excludes the five old-rule launches (about 2,000 units), which would add to 2035 onwards.
- Oct 2025Rivercove Residences (628 units) reached MOP. No other EC reaches MOP until 2028, which keeps today's resale EC supply thin.
- Jan 2028Piermont Grand (820 units) reaches MOP, followed by Parc Canberra later in 2028.
- 2028 to 2032The 2021 to 2024 launches reach MOP: Parc Central Residences, Provence Residence, North Gaia, Copen Grand, Tenet, Altura, Lumina Grand and Novo Place.
- Early to mid 2030sThe 2025 to 2026 launches (Aurelle of Tampines, Otto Place, Coastal Cabana, Rivelle Tampines, about 2,700 units) reach MOP, alongside the old-rule ECs bought from late 2026. This is when today's buyers would be selling.
MOP dates from completion (TOP) records compiled by third-party trackers; dates after 2028 are estimates based on expected completion.
The current shortage of resale ECs supports prices for people who own one now. It will not help someone buying today, who is likely to sell into a busier market in the early 2030s, competing with several thousand ECs of a similar age in Tampines, Pasir Ris, Tengah and the north.
Question 11
Which path fits you?
Profit is only part of the decision. Eligibility, cash flow and how long you can stay put matter just as much.
What each route costs
Median total price by home size, Oct 2025 to Sep 2026
Resale ECNew ECNew 99-year OCR condo
URA. 3-bed size 801 to 1,100 sq ft, 4-bed size 1,101 to 1,600 sq ft, 2-bed size up to 800 sq ft. Sales: resale EC 756 / 751; new EC 972 / 344; new OCR 1,143 / 908; new OCR 2-bed 1,308.
A new EC suits you if
- Household income is $16,000 or less
- You need 3 or 4 bedrooms at the lowest price
- You can stay 8 to 9 years from purchase
- The launch is well below nearby private (about 17% today)
An OCR condo suits you if
- Your income is above the EC ceiling
- You want to rent out or sell earlier
- A 2-bedroom is enough (about $1.59M)
- A private launch is priced close to the EC
A resale EC suits you if
- You earn above the ceiling (no limit after MOP)
- You want a lower price (median $1,467 psf)
- You want to move in without waiting
Not sure which list you fit? Send us your budget and HDB situation and we'll tell you which route to look at first.
Message us on WhatsAppQuestion 12
How can you tilt the odds toward
a bigger gain?
None of these guarantee a profit. They are the habits that line up with what the data shows.
01
Check the gap, not the headline price
Compare the EC's psf with the nearest new private launch and with nearby resale ECs. Today's same-town gap is about 17%. As a rough guide, older ECs resell about 9 to 14% below private, so a launch priced within that range leaves little room to catch up.
02
Put the discount where it is biggest
The dollar saving grows with size: about $425,000 at 3-bed size and $612,000 at 4-bed size. Family-size units are also what the next EC buyer, usually an upgrading family, will be looking for.
03
Plan to hold past the MOP
The largest gains in the examples above were seen after holding 8 to 14 years, around the time ECs approached full privatisation. Owners who sold in the first year after MOP saw annual returns closer to 5%, according to a PropertyLimBrothers study.
04
Price in the deferred payment premium
Deferred payment usually adds 2 to 3% to the price. It eases cash flow for upgraders but reduces your eventual gain, so weigh it against bridging options.
05
Think about who will buy from you
When you sell in the early 2030s, buyers will be choosing between several thousand similar-age ECs. Location, layout and the estate's private options at that time will shape your price as much as today's discount.
Before you commit
Want this comparison run on the launch you're eyeing?
Send us the EC or condo you're considering. We'll run the same analysis on that one project and your household:
- Its price gap to the nearest private launches and resale ECs
- Your eligibility under the old and new EC rules
- A cash and CPF check, including deferred payment and ABSD timing if you own an HDB flat
No obligation. No mailing list. Just the numbers and the honest read.